How to Evaluate an Early-Warning System: Toward a Unified Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods

120 citations recorded by the source corpus.

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

Learning from History: Volatility and Financial Crises (2016, methodology): “A key advantage of the AUROC approach is that it does not rely on a specific threshold; consequently it has been widely used as an evaluation criterion in recent literature, including Berge and Jorda (2011); Candelon et al. (2012), and Schularick and Taylor (2012). If a signal is non-informative, eq”
Operationalising the Countercyclical Capital Buffer: Indicator Selection, Threshold Identification and Calibration Options (2014, methodology): “More recently the AUROC has been used as an evaluation criterion in the economics literature, for instance Berge and Jordà (2011), Jordà and Taylor (2011), Candelon et al. (2012), Jordà (2012), Drehmann and Juselius (2014), Betz et al. (2013) and Behn et al. (2013a).”