Forecasting Performance of an Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model

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Real-Time Density Forecasts From Bayesian Vector Autoregressions With Stochastic Volatility (2011, methodology): “For computational tractability, I compute the log predictive density score based on the Gaussian (quadratic) formula given by Adolfson, Linde, and Villani (2005), under which a lower score implies a better model.”
How Useful Are Estimated DSGE Model Forecasts for Central Bankers? (2010, unknown): “[2] Adolfson, M.”
QUEST III: An Estimated Open-Economy DSGE Model of the Euro Area with Fiscal and Monetary Policy (2009, methodology): “Also, various papers by Adolfson et al. (2007) have documented a satisfactory forecasting performance when ☆ We have benefited from helpful comments by Bernhard Herz, Lorenzo Forni, our colleagues at DG ECFIN and JRC and other participants at the CEF 2006 conference in Limassol, Cyprus, the…”
A comparison of forecast performance between federal reserve staff forecasts, simple reduced‐form models, and a DSGE model (2010, result): “Research by Adolfson et al. [2007] is closely related to our analysis.”