Explaining fertility: The potential for integrative approaches

By J. Huinink, M. Kohli, J. Ehrhardt. 2015

1. Aims and structure of the Special CollectionWith this Special Collection (SC) we contribute to the discussion on theoretical approaches to explain fertility behavior in developed countries from an integrative perspective.4 As fertility behavior takes place in a multi-level setting of biological, psychological, social, economic, cultural, and political conditions, theories to explain fertility behavior need to be drawn from several academic disciplines and to address different levels of analysis. Some theories have been much discussed and tested in fertility research, while other approaches still have to unfold and demonstrate their explanatory potential. Since the different approaches do not share a common framework but use specific assumptions, focus on particular aspects, and integrate different levels and dimensions of the environment, they present a need for synthesis.Against this background, we want to accomplish three goals: (1) The SC should give an update on current theoretical thinking about fertility by including new versions of broadly established theoretical approaches as well as promising other theoretical models. (2) It should highlight how these theories contribute to the explanation of fertility behavior and shows how they complement or compete with each other. (3) It should inform about recent empirical research on fertility based on these theories.In order to gain a structured overview of the subject, the articles are arranged according to the different levels of analysis. We distinguish between* the evolutionary (socio-biological) level;* the level of individual actors und their life courses;* the level of interactions in partnerships and personal networks;* the socio-structural, institutional, economic, and cultural conditions at the societal level.In sum, the SC comprises nine articles plus this introduction. Each article reports on developments in the specific theory that it addresses, and details its contribution to the explanation of fertility behavior. It also briefly discusses recent research on fertility based on this approach. Furthermore, it spells out which type of research on fertility is promising from the specific theoretical perspective. Open questions and data needs are also discussed.Before we introduce the articles gathered in this SC (section 3), we shall first elucidate some challenges of explaining fertility and fertility change from an integrated interdisciplinary perspective, and address problems of theory construction (section 2). In the final section (4) we draw some conclusions.2. Constructing an integrated theory of fertilityTo fully understand fertility, approaches from various academic disciplines covering several relevant dimensions have to be integrated. As a whole, they constitute a complex multi-causal model of dynamic mechanisms. Integrating these theories into a common approach is not a matter of merely assembling them. Demographers have long been aware of this challenge, and in the last decades, considerable progress has been made in this regard. Two closely related sources of complexity have to be considered: (1) the sheer number and diversity of factors and related mechanisms necessary for establishing the full multi-causal pattern of individual and aggregate fertility; (2) the recursive dynamics in the causal structure, which means that most of the relevant factors are endogenous. Let us address some of the challenges evoked by this task.2.1 Some meta-theoretical considerationsWe know from nonlinear systems theory and from the study of social change that a crucial consequence of complexity is that there is no universally valid, "complete" theory to explain the dynamics of social structures over time (Boudon 1983; Helbing 2012). It is therefore not possible to make safe projections from a medium- and long-term perspective. One has to deal with uncertainty due to the high sensitivity of future trajectories to initial conditions, which can only be observed and modeled to a limited extent. …

How researchers see this paper

The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.

Citations in the corpus

Invariant Causal Prediction for Nonlinear Models (2017, background): “ups of people within a country. There is a large body of work that is trying to explain changes in fertility; for an interesting overview of dierent theories see Hirschman (1994) and the more recent Huinink et al. (2015). There is not a single established theory for changes in fertility and we shoul”