Do We Really Know That Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative

By Robert B. Barsky, Lutz Kilian. NBER macroeconomics annual, 2001

728 citations recorded by the source corpus.

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Citations in the corpus

THE ROLE OF INVENTORIES AND SPECULATIVE TRADING IN THE GLOBAL MARKET FOR CRUDE OIL (2014, methodology): “For example, it was a central feature of the oil price shock of 1979, following the Iranian Revolution, consistent with the narrative evidence in Barsky and Kilian (2002), and it helps explain the sharp decline in the real price of oil in early 1986 after the collapse of OPEC.”
What Drives Oil Prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies (2012, neutral): “, Burbidge and Harrison (1984), Gisser and Goodwin (1986), Bjørnland (2000) and Hamilton (1996, 2003, 2009) among many others).”
Monetary Policy and Stagflation in the UK (2004, neutral): “In the wake of this relatively favourable outcome, many recent studies have revisited the period from the mid1960s to the early 1980s in an attempt to isolate why that period saw the “Great Inflation” or “Great Stagflation”—stagnant or declining output alongside high inflation (see e.g. DeLong, 1997”
Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014 (2016, background): “Both respond to fluctuations in the global business cycle (see, e.g., Barsky and Kilian 2002; Baumeister and Kilian 2012).”
Oil and the Great Moderation (2010, neutral): “What is more, Barsky and Kilian (2001) and Kilian (2008) argued that even the major oil price increases in the 1970s were not an essential part of the mechanism that generated stag ‡ation, and that the latter is attributable instead to monetary factors.”
Time-Varying Effect of Oil Market Shocks on the Stock Market (2015, positive): “Following Barsky and Kilian (2002), we use the U.S. producer price index for oil (DRI code: PW561) and the composite index for refiner's acquisition cost of imported and domestic crude oil to extend the oil price data back to January 1968.”
Does the source of oil price shocks matter for South African stock returns? A structural VAR approach (2013, methodology): “Following Barsky and Kilian (2002) the data for the price of crude oil has been extrapolated back to 1973:01 and was deflated using the US consumer price index (CPI) inflation.”
Oil price elasticities and oil price fluctuations (2016, neutral): “Our interest is in understanding the different predictive power of m and rea for either ya or ye, as measured by β1 and β2, once the past state of the economy is conditioned (10)Barsky and Kilian (2001) also draw attention to the striking empirical regularity by which, since the early 1970s, episode”
Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Interest Rates (2019, background): “real interest rate associated with loose monetary policy contributed to the surge in the real price of oil in 1979/80 (Barsky and Kilian 2002).”
Does the Fed Respond to Oil Price Shocks (2011, neutral): “This finding raises the question of whether Volcker raised interest rates in 1979 in response to the oil price shock of 1979 or whether he would have raised interest rates in response to rising inflation even in the absence of oil price shocks, as suggested, for example, in Barsky and Kilian (2002).”
Relationship between gold and stock markets during the global financial crisis: Evidence from nonlinear causality tests (2015, background): “Frankel (2014) and Barsky and Kilian (2002, 2004) show that the commodity prices- e.g., gold, oil and minerals, etc. - are inversely related to interest rate movements.”