Reducing and meta-analysing estimates from distributed lag non-linear models

By Antonio Gasparrini, Ben Armstrong. BMC Medical Research Methodology, 2013

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BackgroundThe two-stage time series design represents a powerful analytical tool in environmental epidemiology. Recently, models for both stages have been extended with the development of distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs), a methodology for investigating simultaneously non-linear and lagged relationships, and multivariate meta-analysis, a methodology to pool estimates of multi-parameter associations. However, the application of both methods in two-stage analyses is prevented by the high-dimensional definition of DLNMs.MethodsIn this contribution we propose a method to synthesize DLNMs to simpler summaries, expressed by a reduced set of parameters of one-dimensional functions, which are compatible with current multivariate meta-analytical techniques. The methodology and modelling framework are implemented in R through the packages dlnm and mvmeta.ResultsAs an illustrative application, the method is adopted for the two-stage time series analysis of temperature-mortality associations using data from 10 regions in England and Wales. R code and data are available as supplementary online material.Discussion and ConclusionsThe methodology proposed here extends the use of DLNMs in two-stage analyses, obtaining meta-analytical estimates of easily interpretable summaries from complex non-linear and delayed associations. The approach relaxes the assumptions and avoids simplifications required by simpler modelling approaches.

Subfields: Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis, Modeling and Simulation, Statistics and Probability

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