Future climate forcing potentially without precedent in the last 420 million years

By G. Foster, D. Royer, Dan Lunt. Nature Communications, 2017

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The evolution of Earth’s climate on geological timescales is largely driven by variations in the magnitude of total solar irradiance (TSI) and changes in the greenhouse gas content of the atmosphere. Here we show that the slow ∼50 Wm−2 increase in TSI over the last ∼420 million years (an increase of ∼9 Wm−2 of radiative forcing) was almost completely negated by a long-term decline in atmospheric CO2. This was likely due to the silicate weathering-negative feedback and the expansion of land plants that together ensured Earth’s long-term habitability. Humanity’s fossil-fuel use, if unabated, risks taking us, by the middle of the twenty-first century, to values of CO2 not seen since the early Eocene (50 million years ago). If CO2 continues to rise further into the twenty-third century, then the associated large increase in radiative forcing, and how the Earth system would respond, would likely be without geological precedent in the last half a billion years. Despite an increase in solar output, the Earth’s climate has apparently remained relatively stable over geological time. Here, the authors compile atmospheric CO2data for the past 420 million years and show that this climatic response is due to the long-term decline in this powerful greenhouse gas.

Subfields: Atmospheric Science, Geophysics, Paleontology

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/135a6c3f279bff3b56230ef758797b0ac43673eb

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