Learning curve analysis of concentrated photovoltaic systems
By J. Haysom, Omid Jafarieh, Hanan Anis, Karin Hinzer, David J. Wright. 2015
86 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Price declines and volume growth of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are analysed using the learning curve methodology and compared with other forms of solar electricity generation. Logarithmic regression analysis determines a learning rate of 18% for CPV systems with 90% confidence of that rate being between 14 and 22%, which is higher than the learning rates of other solar generation systems (11% for CSP and 12 to 14% for PV). Current CPV system prices are competitive with PV and CSP, which, when combined with the higher learning rate, indicates that CPV is likely to further improve its marketability. A target price of 1 $/W in 2020 could be achieved with a compound growth rate of 67% for the total deployed volume between 2014 and 2020, which would realize a cumulative deployed volume of 7900 MW. Other projections of deployment volumes from commercial sources are converted using the learning rate into future price scenarios, resulting in predicted prices in the range of 1.1 to 1.3 $/W in 2020. © 2014 The Authors. Progress in Photovoltaics: Research and Applications published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
Subfields: Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Environmental Engineering, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/130053c13e289a2b9092f7ee848b1a1f3dcfa773
How researchers see this paper
The researchers whose trusted networks rank it highest, strongest advocate first. Every researcher gets a different order.
In Electrical and Electronic Engineering
In Environmental Engineering
In Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment
Citations in the corpus
- The experience curve theory and its application in the field of electricity generation technologies – A literature review (2018, background): “Only a few studies have looked at learning rates for non-silicon PV technology, such as cadmiumtelluride thin film modules [92], or for concentrating PV systems [93].”