Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data

By Ruediger Bachmann, Steffen Elstner, Eric R. Sims. 2013

1,104 citations recorded by the source corpus.

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/12f3b50fbd64dd4153edd9b677382bc33e6d83b2

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Citations in the corpus

Information, Misallocation, and Aggregate Productivity (2016, methodology): “77Another proxy for micro uncertainty can be found in Bachmann et al. (2013), who use forecast dispersion from the Philadelphia Fed’s Business Outlook Survey.”
Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes: Real-Time Aggregation of Real-Activity Macro Surprises (2016, methodology): “As shown in Bachmann et al. (2013), the results are robust to estimating a larger VAR similar to Bloom (2009).(25) Each VAR is estimated selecting the lag length based on the Schwarz Information Criterion; employment enters in log levels, while uncertainty measures in levels.”
Policy uncertainty, investment, and the cost of capital (2018, background): “…in the form of lower interest rates 1 For earlier empirical evidence on the negative relation between uncertainty and investment, see Pindyck and Solimano (1993), Leahy and Whited (1996), Guiso and Parigi (1999), Bond and Cummins (2004), Eisdorfer (2008), and Badertscher, Shroff, and White (2013).”
Economic uncertainty and bank risk: Evidence from emerging economies (2020, positive): “Extant results commonly find a counter-productive force of economic uncertainty to dampen entrepreneurs’ incentive of investment, delay their decisions of hiring, increase households’ precautionary saving and reduce the volume of international trade, suggesting economic uncertainty as one of the mai”
Dynamic Co-Movements of Stock Market Returns, Implied Volatility and Policy Uncertainty (2013, background): “Authors mainly focus their attention on the examination of the effects of policy uncertainty on macroeconomic variables, such as growth, inflation and investment (see, Bloom, 2009; Baum et al., 2010; Bachmann et al., 2010; Jones and Olson, 2013, among others).”
Uncertainty and Unemployment (2017, background): “…firm-level proxies such as sales growth rates (Bloom, 2009), prices (Vavra, 2014), employment growth (Bachmann and Bayer, 2013), business forecasts (Bachmann et al., 2013) and stock prices (Campbell et al., 2001), including the implied stock market volatility as captured in the VIX/VXO series…”
Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US (2014, background): “A non-exhaustive list includes Alexopoulos and Cohen (2009), Bachmann et al. (2013), Baker et al. (2013), Bloom (2009), Gilchrist et al. (2013), Jurado et al. (2013), Leduc and Liu (2013).”
Policy Risk and the Business Cycle (2014, result): “In contrast, a second group of studies reports little to no impact at all (Bachmann and Bayer, 2011; Bachmann et al., 2010; Bekaert et al., 2010; Chugh, 2011; Popescu and Smets, 2010). In the theoretical literature, while most studies have emphasized the contractionary effects of uncertainty on econ”
‘Wait-and-See’ business cycles? (2013, background): “This is similar to the SVAR findings in Bachmann et al. (2013a, 2013b), who use business survey data to measure firms' risk, as well as Bond and Cummins (2004), who use surveys of financial analysts. 5 Other channels for the propagation of risk shocks have been considered in the literature: for exam”
Uncertainty and Business Cycles: Exogenous Impulse or Endogenous Response? (2015, positive): “…on recursive schemes within the framework of vector-autoregressions (VAR).1 While a recursive structure is a convenient starting point, it is 1See Bachmann, Elstner, and Sims (2013), Bloom (2009), Bloom (2014), Bekaert, Hoerova, and Duca (2013), 1 ultimately unsatisfactory as an identification…”