Reversing the Causal Arrow: The Political Conditioning of Economic Perceptions in the 2000–2004 U.S. Presidential Election Cycle

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To Lag or Not to Lag?: Re-Evaluating the Use of Lagged Dependent Variables in Regression Analysis* (2017, methodology): “A key point of contention in this literature has been whether the models used should contain LDVs (Evans and Pickup 2010) or not (Lewis-Beck 2006; Lewis-Beck, Nadeau and Elias 2008).”
Fleeing the centre: the rise of challenger parties in the aftermath of the euro crisis (2016, background): “Second, although perceptions of the economy are normally highly correlated with party choice, there is increasing concern that the direction of causality is actually from party support to economic evaluations (Evans and Andersen 2006; Evans and Pickup 2010).”
Clarity of responsibility: How government cohesion conditions performance voting (2013, background): “…that the strong relationship between economic evaluations and vote choice has been overstated since people’s perceptions of policy performance are shaped by their political orientation – notably partisanship (Anderson et al. 2004; Evans & Andersen 2006; Ladner & Wlezien 2007; Evans & Pickup 2010).”