Range expansion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia in Europe is promoted by climate change.
By Sarah Cunze, M. Leiblein, Oliver Tackenberg. 2013
104 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Ambrosia artemisiifolia L., native to North America, is a problematic invasive species, because of its highly allergenic pollen. The species is expected to expand its range due to climate change. By means of ecological niche modelling (ENM), we predict habitat suitability for A. artemisiifolia in Europe under current and future climatic conditions. Overall, we compared the performance and results of 16 algorithms commonly applied in ENM. As occurrence records of invasive species may be dominated by sampling bias, we also used data from the native range. To assess the quality of the modelling approaches we assembled a new map of current occurrences of A. artemisiifolia in Europe. Our results show that ENM yields a good estimation of the potential range of A. artemisiifolia in Europe only when using the North American data. A strong sampling bias in the European Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) data for A. artemisiifolia causes unrealistic results. Using the North American data reflects the realized European distribution very well. All models predict an enlargement and a northwards shift of potential range in Central and Northern Europe during the next decades. Climate warming will lead to an increase and northwards shift of A. artemisiifolia in Europe.
Subfields: Ecological Modeling, Ecology
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/11b35f801c66dfb333bd813018cce5b4f8a51f6f
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Citations in the corpus
- The Worldwide Spread, Success, and Impact of Ragweed (Ambrosia spp.) (2017, background): “Cunze et al. (2013) estimated that it requires an accumulated temperature sum of 1400 C to produce mature seeds.”
- Ophraella communa, the ragweed leaf beetle, has successfully landed in Europe: fortunate coincidence or threat? (2014, unknown): “This plant originates from North America but has become widespread in other continents, including Asia, Australia and Europe (Cunze et al., 2013; GISD, 2013).”