Evolving Post-World War II U.S. Inflation Dynamics

By Timothy Cogley, Thomas J. Sargent. NBER macroeconomics annual, 2001

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Citations in the corpus

Optimal Inflation and the Identification of the Phillips Curve (2019, background): “At worst, weaker evidence of a clear link between real activity and inflation could be interpreted as a sign that there is no short-run policy trade-off between the two goals, leading policy makers to abandon the natural rate hypothesis (Taylor 1998; Cogley and Sargent 2001).”
The persistence of inflation in the United States (2007, methodology): “8 This choice of priors coincides with that of Cogley and Sargent (2002) to allow comparison of our”
Prices, Wages and the U.S. NAIRU in the 1990s (2001, positive): “As Hall (1999) and Cogley and Sargent (2001) argue, the low frequency trend component can be thought of as an estimate of the natural rate of unemployment; thus this approach allows separate identification of the NAIRU and the natural rate. Section 4 reports empirical price Phillips relations estima”
The Structural Dynamics of U.S. Output and Inflation: What Explains the Changes? (2008, methodology): “For example, Clarida, Gali and Gertler (2000), Cogley and Sargent (2001) and (2005), Boivin and Giannoni, (2002), Lubik and Schorfheide (2004) have argued that monetary policy was ”loose” in fighting inflation in the 1970s but became more aggressive since the early 1980s.”
Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time? (2005, background): “Moreover, because the HICP series is not seasonally adjusted, the inclusion of four lags in 5See Taylor (1998), Sargent (1999), Cogley and Sargent (2001), and Levin and Piger (2003) for discussions of the likely effect that a credible commitment to a low inflation target has on the ρ parameter.”
Robust Spectral Analysis (2011, background): “However, both observed data and the posterior distributions of economic models can exhibit heavy tails (Cogley and Sargent, 2002) that can induce peaks at random in the sample spectra of the data and the model output, invalidating comparisons between the two.”
Inflation-Gap Persistence in the U.S. (2008, methodology): “As in Cogley and Sargent (2005a) and Primiceri (2005), we estimate VARs with drifting parameters and stochastic volatility.”
No-Arbitrage Taylor Rules (2007, neutral): “3 Several recent studies have emphasized that the linear coefficientsδ1 potentially vary over time (see, among others, Clarida, Galı́ and Gertler, 2000; Cogley and Sargent, 2001 and 2004; Boivin, 2004).”
EVOLVING INTERNATIONAL INFLATION DYNAMICS: WORLD AND COUNTRY‐SPECIFIC FACTORS (2012, neutral): “In line with Cogley and Sargent (2002), we postulate an inverse-Gamma distribution for the elements of G, σ2i ∼ IG µ 10−4 2 , 1 2 ¶ Simulating the Posterior Distributions Factors and Factor Loadings This closely follows Bernanke, Boivin and Eliasz (2005).”
Has U.S. Monetary Policy Changed? Evidence from Drifting Coefficients and Real-Time Data (2006, neutral): “Cogley and Sargent (2001) specify a reduced form vector autoregression (VAR) with drifting coefficients which produces results, they argue, broadly consistent with those of Clarida, Galı̀, and Gertler (2000), although the time variation is not clearly of a discrete nature.”
Estimation of a Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Rule: A Time-Varying Parameter Model using Ex-Post Data (2006, methodology): “Cogley and Sargent (2001, 2003) and Boivin (2001) report significant time variation in the policy response to the state of the economy, within the framework of the time-varying parameter models.”