Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

By John B. Goodenough, Charles B. Weinstock, Ari Z. Klein. 2012

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Abstract : Assurance cases provide an argument and evidence explaining why a claim about some system property holds. This report outlines a framework for justifying confidence in the truth of such an assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction - the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for doubting its truth are identified and eliminated. Possible reasons for doubting the truth of a claim (defeaters) arise from analyzing an assurance case using defeasible reasoning concepts. Finally, the notion of Baconian probability provides a measure of confidence based on how many defeaters have been identified and eliminated.

Subfields: Information Systems, Safety, Risk, Reliability and Quality, Statistics and Probability

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/0b757126c8fad9cdbe4265bc941ee4616140caa3