Does Social Distancing Matter?
By Michael Greenstone, V. Nigam. Social Science Research Network, 2020
398 citations recorded by the source corpus.
This paper develops and implements a method to monetize the impact of moderate social distancing on deaths from COVID-19. Using the Ferguson et al. (2020) simulation model of COVID-19’s spread and mortality impacts in the United States, we project that 3-4 months of moderate distancing beginning in late March 2020 would save 1.7 million lives by October 1. Of the lives saved, 630,000 are due to avoided overwhelming of hospital intensive care units. Using the projected age-specific reductions in death and age-varying estimates of the United States Government’s value of a statistical life, we find that the mortality benefits of social distancing are about $8 trillion or $60,000 per US household. Roughly 90% of the monetized benefits are projected to accrue to people age 50 or older. Overall, the analysis suggests that social distancing initiatives and policies in response to the COVID-19 epidemic have substantial economic benefits.
Subfields: General Health Professions, Health, Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/09de20f51dfd5a97fc40ea0aebcc741f5d7fb537
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In General Health Professions
Citations in the corpus
- Light at the end of the tunnel: Visitors' virtual reality (versus in-person) attraction site tour-related behavioral intentions during and post-COVID-19 (2021, background): “It has also helped reduce mortality rates, thus yielding monetary savings (Greenstone & Nigam, 2020).”
- A literature review of the economics of COVID‐19 (2020, background): “Greenstone and Nigam (2020) project that 3 to 4 months of adherence to social distancing regulations would reduce the number of cases in the United States by 1.7 million by October of 2021, 630,000 of which would translate into averted overcrowding of ICUs in hospitals.”
- Economic impact of government interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence from financial markets (2020, neutral): “In this regard, Greenstone and Nigam (2020) estimate that moderate social distancing in the USA beginning from late March 2020 would save 1.7 million lives by October 1 in the USA.”