A Note on Aggregation, Disaggregation and Forecasting Performance

By A. Zellner, J. Tobias. 2000

158 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Economics and Econometrics, Management Science and Operations Research

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Citations in the corpus

Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series (2011, background): “Zellner & Tobias (2000) used annual GDP growth rates from 18 countries and found that disaggregation provided better forecasts.”
The economic consequences of euro-area macro-modelling shortcuts (2010, background): “Zellner and Tobias (2000) and Baltagi et al. (2000) advocated assessing the relevance of the aggregation bias on the basis of the relative forecast performance of the aggregate and disaggregate models.”
Retail forecasting: Research and practice (2019, background): “Existing researches have shown that the bottom-up approach is needed when there are large differences in structure across demand time series and underlying drivers (Orcutt and Edwards, 2010; Zellner and Tobias, 2000; Zotteri and Kalchschmidt, 2007; Zotteri, Kalchschmidt, and Caniato, 2005).”
Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism (2009, methodology): “…1999) others the bottom-up approaches (see for example Orcutt et al., 1968; Edwards and Orcutt, 1969; Kinney, 1971; Dangerfield and Morris, 1992; Zellner and Tobias, 2000) and some finding either method to be uniformly superior (see for example Weatherby, 1984; Fliedner and Mabert, 1992; Shing,…”
Forecasting Euro Area Inflation: Does Aggregating Forecasts by Hicp Component Improve Forecast Accuracy? (2003, unknown): “Grunfeld & Griliches (1960), however, point out that if the micro equations are not as- 9In addition to the papers on forecasting inflation in the euro area mentioned in the introduction, see e.g. Zellner & Tobias (2000) on disaggregation and forecasting performance in industrialized countries.”
Aggregation of Space-Time Processes (2001, background): “The authors would like to thank Andrew Patton, Marjorie Flavin, Ross Starr and two referees for helpful comments.”