ECOLOGICAL FUTURES: BUILDING AN ECOLOGY OF THE LONG NOW1

By Stephen R. Carpenter. 2002

304 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Ecology, Environmental Engineering, Global and Planetary Change

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/087d73e4d42c551ee14a0250259cbccdb51786f1

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Citations in the corpus

Forest dynamics and ungulate herbivory: from leaf to landscape (2003, background): “The concept of ‘‘the long now’’, where current ecosystem states are understood in the context of their historical development, and in turn provide context for future ecosystem change, has been emphasized in a recent paper by Carpenter (2002) .”
Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World (2003, background): “Ecological predictions have three fundamental, interacting problems: uncertainty, contingency, and reflexivity (Carpenter 2002).”
Resilience, Robustness, and Marine Ecosystem-based Management (2008, unknown): “BioScience 58:43-52.”
Interacting regime shifts in ecosystems: implication for early warnings (2010, background): “Gradual, incremental change 77 may give the impression that an ecosystem is not capable of extensive change that goes beyond 78 the range of historical experience (Carpenter 2002, 2003).”
Science for managing ecosystem services: Beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2009, background): “Research is needed to build the empirical base for understanding thresholds of massive persistent changes in social–ecological systems, the factors that control probabilities of such changes, and leading indicators of incipient thresholds (32).”
RESILIENCE: THE EMERGENCE OF A PERSPECTIVE FOR SOCIAL-ECOLOGICAL SYSTEMS ANALYSES (2006, background): “…inherent complexities and resulting uncertainties associated with ecosystem management (Pritchard et al., 2000) and natural capital assets in general (Brock et al., 2002) and ignore the broad-tailed and slowly changing probability distributions of critical ecosystem thresholds (Carpenter, 2002).”
Eutrophication of freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems a global problem (2003, background): “The effects of food web structure on algal biomass in lakes have also been extremely well characterized during the past 25 years (Shapiro et al. 1975, Hrbácek et al. 1978, Carpenter and Kitchell 1993, Mazumder 1994a,b, Carpenter et al. 1995, Lacroix et al. 1996, Carpenter 2002).”
An Exploratory Framework for the Empirical Measurement of Resilience (2005, background): “Two relatively recent trends in the environmental sciences are attempts to quantify uncertainty (for example, Bradshaw and Borchers 2000; Regan and others 2002, 2003) and the application of more sophisticated forecasting and prediction techniques (Clark and others 2001; Carpenter 2002; Rose and Co”
Adaptive capacity and learning to learn as leverage for social–ecological resilience (2007, background): “Second, it is important to understand the social–ecological impacts of current behavior and to disseminate information on how best to achieve the desired direction of change (Carpenter 2002).”
Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians (2004, background): “Scenarios can help inform decisions (Clark et al. 2001; Carpenter 2002).”
Resilience Management in Social-ecological Systems: a Working Hypothesis for a Participatory Approach (2002, methodology): “We define a scenario as a plausible exploration of the future, to be used in combination with other scenarios to explore the robustness of diverse models and choices (Wack 1985a, b, van der Heijden 1996, Carpenter 2002).”