A mathematical model for simulating the phase-based transmissibility of a novel coronavirus

By Tian-mu Chen, J. Rui, Qiuxin Wang, Ze-yu Zhao, J. Cui, L. Yin. Infectious Diseases of Poverty, 2020

773 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Background As reported by the World Health Organization, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) was identified as the causative virus of Wuhan pneumonia of unknown etiology by Chinese authorities on 7 January, 2020. The virus was named as severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) by International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses on 11 February, 2020. This study aimed to develop a mathematical model for calculating the transmissibility of the virus. Methods In this study, we developed a Bats-Hosts-Reservoir-People transmission network model for simulating the potential transmission from the infection source (probably be bats) to the human infection. Since the Bats-Hosts-Reservoir network was hard to explore clearly and public concerns were focusing on the transmission from Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market (reservoir) to people, we simplified the model as Reservoir-People (RP) transmission network model. The next generation matrix approach was adopted to calculate the basic reproduction number ( R 0 ) from the RP model to assess the transmissibility of the SARS-CoV-2. Results The value of R 0 was estimated of 2.30 from reservoir to person and 3.58 from person to person which means that the expected number of secondary infections that result from introducing a single infected individual into an otherwise susceptible population was 3.58. Conclusions Our model showed that the transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 was higher than the Middle East respiratory syndrome in the Middle East countries, similar to severe acute respiratory syndrome, but lower than MERS in the Republic of Korea.

Subfields: Infectious Diseases, Modeling and Simulation, Pulmonary and Respiratory Medicine

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/018269476cd191365d6b8bed046078aea07c8c01

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Analysis and Dynamics of Fractional Order Mathematical Model of COVID-19 in Nigeria Using Atangana-Baleanu Operator (2021, background): “The global scourge of COVID-19 pandemic has elicited the attention of scholars in different disciplines, prompting several proposals to examine and envisage the development of the pandemic [8].”
Numerical investigations on COVID‐19 model through singular and non‐singular fractional operators (2020, background): “In case of COVID-19, distinct mathematical systems have been established to study this newly epidemic [7, 14, 23, 46, 47, 49].”
Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 transmission dynamics with a case study of Wuhan (2020, background): “The global problem of the outbreak has attracted the interest of esearchers of different areas, giving rise to a number of proposals o analyze and predict the evolution of the pandemic [6,7] .”