An Economist's Perspective on Probability Matching

By Nir Vulkan. 2000

399 citations recorded by the source corpus.

Subfields: Education, Management Science and Operations Research, Safety Research

View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/00ff6d3db1a968a42e54c78fedd51e003f646df9

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Citations in the corpus

Action bias among elite soccer goalkeepers: The case of penalty kicks (2007, background): “In many experiments, however, it has been observed that people often choose A with probability p and B with probability (1-p), a behavior that was coined "probability matching" (for a review of this literature, see Vulkan, 2000).”
Unpacking the Exploration–Exploitation Tradeoff: A Synthesis of Human and Animal Literatures (2015, background): “This interpretation is based on the assumption that the decision-maker’s goal is to exploit the option with the higher payoff (Newell & Rakow, 2007; Vulkan, 2000).”
Understanding the origin of information-seeking exploration in probabilistic objectives for control (2021, background): “Specifically, the phenomenon of probability matching (Shanks, Tunney, & McCarthy, 2002; Tversky & Kahneman, 1974; Vulkan, 2000), where subjects do not always greedily choose the best (highest reward expectation) in stochastic bandit tasks, but instead sample each option in rough proportion to its…”
Learning and the Economics of Small Decisions (2013, neutral): “…" probability matching, " triggered influential studies and lively debates (see Estes, 1950, 1964; Bush & Mosteller, 1955; Suppes & Atkinson, 1960; Edwards, 1961; Siegel & Goldstein, 1959; Lee, 1970; and recent analysis in Bereby-Meyer & Erev, 1998; Vulkan, 2000; Shanks, Tunney, & McCarthy, 2002).”
Children's imitation of causal action sequences is influenced by statistical and pedagogical evidence. (2011, background): “…that we had only one response per child in this study so that we do not know for sure whether this probability matching behavior applies to individual children or only to children as a group (for a discussion of probability matching behavior see for example Vulkan (2000) & Denison et al. (2009)).”
A decision network account of reasoning about other people's choices. (2015, background): “In particular, people tend to probability match when making predictions about a probabilistic event (Vulkan, 2002).”
Decision Making and the Avoidance of Cognitive Demand (2010, background): “Various explanations might be considered, ranging from the relatively uninteresting possibility that subjects interpreted the instructions to mean that they should continue to choose from both decks, to the more interesting possibilities that subjects’ sampling behavior reflected information seeking”
Behavioral Economics: Past, Present and Future (2016, positive): “In the version of this type of model that Hersh Shefrin and I favor (Thaler and Shefrin 1981) individuals are assumed to have a long-sighted “planner” and myopic “doer” that interact in a model similar to agency models of organizations. Schelling (1984) and Fudenberg and Levine (2006) also proposed ”
If MaxEnt RL is the Answer, What is the Question? (2019, background): “Examples include ants [24], bees [13], ﬁsh [4], ducks [19], pigeons [6, 12], and humans, where it has been documented so extensively that Vulkan [55] wrote a survey of surveys of the ﬁeld.”
Effects of workload, work complexity, and repeated alerts on alert fatigue in a clinical decision support system (2017, background): “Response rates may reflect probability matching, a cognitive phenomenon in which likelihood of acting in response to a stimulus becomes calibrated to pay-off likelihood [16, 36].”
One and Done? Optimal Decisions From Very Few Samples (2014, methodology): “Specifically, we computed the average stakes of the decisions and an estimate of the number of samples participants used to make those decisions for each of the studies reviewed in Vulkan (2000).”
Language Evolution by Iterated Learning With Bayesian Agents (2007, background): “Probability matching is a robust phenomenon observed in human learning (reviews are provided by Myers, 1976 and Vulkan, 2000), and is commonly assumed in cognitive modeling.”