Predicting insect pest status under climate change scenarios: combining experimental data and population dynamics modelling
By Sergio A. Estay, M. Lima, Fabio A. Labra. 2009
142 citations recorded by the source corpus.
Climate change could profoundly affect the status of agricultural insect pests. Several approaches have been used to predict how the temperature and precipitation changes could modify the abundances, distributions or status of insect pests. In this article it is demonstrated how the use of simple models, such as Ricker’s classic equation, including a mechanistic representation of the influence of exogenous forces may improve our predictive capacity of the dynamic behaviour of insect populations. Using data from classical experiments in population ecology, we evaluate how temperature and humidity influence the density of two stored grain insect pest, Tribolium confusum and Callosobruchus chinensis, and then, using the A2 and B2 scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and the previous modelling, we develop predictions over the future pest status of T. confusum along South America austral region, and specifically for eight cities in the continental Chilean territory. Tribolium confusum and C. chinensis show qualitatively different responses to the exogenous forcing of temperature and humidity, respectively. Our simulations predict a change in the equilibrium density of T. confusum from 10 to 14% under the moderate B2 scenario and 12 to 22% under the extreme A2 scenario to the period, 2071–2100. Both results imply a severe change in the pest status of this species in the southern region. This study illustrates how the use of theoretically based models may improve our predictive capacity. This approach provides an opportunity to examine the link between invasive species and climate change and how new suitable habitat may become available for species whose niche space is limited in some degree by climatic conditions. The use of different scenarios allows us to examine the sensitivity of the predictions, and to improve the communication with the general public and decision‐makers; a key aspect in integrated pest management.
Subfields: Insect Science, Plant Science
View Paper: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/006a776f2584e899f33ec88e774d520aec34d093
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Citations in the corpus
- The invasive mealybug Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley, a threat to tropical and subtropical agricultural and horticultural production systems - a review. (2015, background): “This will exacerbate the pest status of some species; thereby reducing crop yields (Willis et al., 2006; Estay et al., 2009; Berzitis et al., 2014).”
- Temperature-Driven Models for Insect Development and Vital Thermal Requirements (2012, unknown): “Moreover, is it though for species whose geographical distributions ultimately are determined by temperature, global warming should result in spatial range shift [33].”
- Plant pathogens, insect pests and weeds in a changing global climate: a review of approaches, challenges, research gaps, key studies and concepts (2012, background): “…been linked to climate change scenarios from one or several different climate models, each providing its own projection output (insects: e.g. Stephens et al. 2007; Estay et al. 2009; pathogens: e.g. Bergot et al. 2004; Salinari et al. 2006; weeds: e.g. McDonald et al. 2009; Chejara et al. 2010).”
- Climate change impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean and their implications for development (2017, background): “Estay et al. (2009) projected an increase in insect population densities of grain pests in Chile of 10–14 % in a 3 C world and 12–22 % in a 4 C world.”
- Modelling the impact of climate change on the interaction between grapevine and its pests and pathogens: European grapevine moth and powdery mildew (2012, background): “There is widespread concern that the predicted future warming will increase the pressure of insect pests and diseases on crops (Porter et al., 1991; Estay et al., 2009; Olesen et al., 2011).”